FMS: Priorities for 2020
(This is the third of three articles on changing trends in FMS.)
Setting effective priorities is the first key to success any time resources are constrained. Foreign Military Sales (FMS) is no different, and the large growth in FMS expected in 2020-2022 for Air Forces demands effective prioritization by U.S. implementing agencies to meet the most critical partner requirements. However, “what is a priority” depends on where you stand. Three lenses that shape current U.S. Security Cooperation priorities are the National Defense Strategy, Administration priorities including job growth, and functional prioritization that includes factors like case maturity and partner nation fiscal deadlines. This article describes those lenses, and how they contribute to overall FMS prioritization.
The first lens shaping U.S. Security Cooperation priorities is the 2018 National Defense Strategy, or NDS, that calls on DoD to strengthen alliances and attract new partners while strengthening interoperability. The NDS views the current national security environment as driven by inter-state strategic competition, particularly with PRC and Russia. In this new competitive environment, the Security Cooperation activities including FMS that matter most serve to expand and strengthen alliances and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific, and flip countries dependent on Russian equipment to U.S. and ally/partner hardware. Therefore, enabling successful FMS cases for allies and partners in East and Northeast Asia, countries bordering the South China Sea, and former-Soviet states transitioning from Russian dependencies align tightly with NDS prioritization.
A second lens for FMS prioritization is U.S. Administration focus-areas that may change inside of NDS cycles, including jobs growth, trade, and industry development. This lens recognizes that while some partners are not in NDS-focus areas for strategic competition with PRC and Russia, the significant value of their FMS cases to the U.S. economy (some counted in hundreds of billions of U.S. dollars) demand the full attention of U.S. FMS implementation agencies like the USAF. Under this lens, Middle East partners, some of which account for over 25% of all U.S. FMS, matter greatly, and their importance is reflected in the level of engagement by Administration leaders, and the size of the partner-funded U.S. staffs supporting FMS case development and execution.
A third lens for FMS prioritization is the context of functional prioritization, including case maturity and partner nation fiscal deadlines. This third lens recognizes that case-level factors like partner financing deadlines and other finite windows of opportunity matter, and sometimes short-term surges of otherwise lower-priority efforts are required to capitalize certain FMS cases. Driving this need for functional prioritization is a reality that the same USAF functional Program Office workers (for example F-16, F-15, Electronic Warfare, and radar) support all U.S. and FMS partner programs. Each of these Airmen can only work one case at any given moment, and prioritizing their workload is a crucial factor in getting the most important things done while not missing relevant windows of opportunity.
In summary, strategic factors like NDS and Administration priorities, coupled with granular factors of case context including case maturity and partner nation fiscal deadlines drive overall Security Cooperation prioritization. To effectively prioritize and execute the growing FMS case workload, Senior Leaders must develop effective prioritization and feedback mechanisms to keep organizations focused, despite the myriad of “other” priorities that compete daily for their attention.
(This is the third article in a three-part series on FMS, including Trends for 2020 https://link.medium.com/UkorfN2zB2 and Transitions and Challenges https://link.medium.com/GhYEUC4zB2 .)
