FMS: Trends and Opportunities in a World with COVID-19
The world has changed under the strain of COVID-19, and those changes are driving allies and partners to consider shaping their procurement of US-produced systems and the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) cases that deliver weapons systems, sustainment, and training. In this pandemic-affected environment, new budget pressures are driving partners to look for low-cost ways to make their current systems more effective by tying existing systems together and making better use of their sovereign data to improve command and control (C2). Additionally, aggressive acts by strategic competitors are driving new partner investments in intelligence-gathering systems and precision weapons capabilities that can increase deterrence. Meanwhile, rapid advancements in air and missile threats are driving allies and partners to build and integrate new national and regional air defenses. Collectively, these three trends offer significant opportunities for the US defense industry and Defense Department to advance US interests while providing allies and partners the capabilities they need for their defense.
FMS Trend 1: Defense Budget Pressures. As partner governments grapple with the long-term effects of COVID-19, their defense leaders face constrained budgets as weapons systems purchases compete for funding with domestic health-focused programs under increased demand during the pandemic. Additionally, nations whose budgets depend on oil revenue have seen budgets significantly constrained by a rapid fall in oil prices. As a result, many partners seek lower-cost options to meet their security requirements, including squeezing improved performance out of existing systems, while pursuing lower-cost ISR, fighter, and air defense platforms.
The fastest and cheapest way that partners can improve the effectiveness of their current capabilities is to tie existing systems together through common networks, better leverage data that exists within their legacy systems, and improve C2 effectiveness. These improvements start by tying stovepiped air, missile, and C2 systems together through cross-domain solutions or new common architectures. Partners are seeking options to connect legacy long-range radars, shorter-range tactical radars, and external contributors such as radar data from neighbors, commercial data, and space data to create a common operating picture (COP). Building an effective COP improves overall situational awareness at every level of command, and improves the cueing of tactical systems that complete air and missile defense engagements. Integration of existing systems and improving C2 provides partners with the lowest-cost way to enhance their overall air and missile defenses.
Meanwhile, partners are pursuing lower-cost intelligence-gathering, fighter, and air defense platforms to provide required capabilities at reduced cost. For intelligence-gathering platforms, partners are finding value by pursuing improvements made by US industry in unmanned systems which have integrated advanced Electro-Optical/Infra-Red sensors on low-cost Group II (small) and Group III (medium) platforms. Partners are also leveraging US industry advancements that enable these unmanned capabilities to operate at longer range through Beyond-Line-of-Sight (BLOS) C2, which enables partners to collect intelligence anywhere the aircraft can fly. Similarly, US industry now provides modern fighter capabilities like precision weapons, advanced targeting pods, and networked sensors in lower-cost platforms that remain fully interoperable with US forces and networks. The net effect of these advancements is that partners retain the ability to procure highly-capable, interoperable, and sustainable US systems through FMS to meet their security requirements, but at new and lower price points.
FMS Trend 2: Growing Opportunities in Areas of Strategic Competition. Aggressive behavior by strategic competitors is increasing partner demand for interoperable capabilities and closer relationships with the US. Partners have noted aggressive actions by PRC and Russia to unilaterally seize terrain, build artificial land features to justify disputed claims, and bully neighbors economically and politically. To attribute these aggressive behaviors while reassuring their citizens, partners are looking to increase their Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities, while procuring additional kinetic capabilities to improve their ability to defend their joint forces and sovereign terrain.
First, partners have learned that intelligence is the armament of diplomacy, and timely and accurate detection, reporting, and attribution of aggressive actions is essential to deterrence. Partner Air Forces who can quickly capture pictures and video to document the aggressive acts can control international narratives during crisis and the diplomatic activities needed to counter and reverse unilateral seizures of terrain by strategic competitors. Partners have also seen that merely placing capable ISR platforms in locations where they can capture aggressive actions will change the actions of competitors, and lead them to terminate a planned aggression. To provide the capabilities needed to document and attribute aggressive actions by competitors, partners seek low-cost visual imagery and video provided by airborne Electro Optical/Infrared (EO/IR) sensors to record aggressive actions, Moving Target Indicator (MTI) to detect aggressive behavior over wide areas of terrain, and maritime surveillance to detect aggressive acts developing at sea. Partner acquisition of these capabilities provides them the tools they need to deter and attribute aggressive actions by competitors.
In addition to ISR capabilities, partners seek timely and accurate kinetic capabilities to enhance response options for their leaders during periods of crisis. Aggressor forces know that immediate and precise actions in self-defense of their own forces within their sovereign borders are justified under international law. Aggressor forces have also witnessed how precision weapons such as AGM-114 Hellfire and AGR-20A Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System (APKWS) can immediately change the nature of an aggressive act while limiting unintended consequences. These advanced low-collateral damage precision weapons capabilities and the ability to C2 them are available to partners via FMS for unmanned persistent attack and reconnaissance systems as part of a total package approach. Partner acquisition of these capabilities provides partner militaries with response options for their political leaders to consider during periods of crisis.
New partners also realize that acquisition of US systems provide them with deterrence-enhancing relationships based on shared values, training, and common sustainment architectures. Partners see FMS as far more than a weapons transaction, and instead see FMS as part of commitment to shared values in the face of aggression. Meanwhile, training with US forces transforms their militaries, advances partner fighting doctrine toward a model of mission command, and improves partner enlisted force capabilities through interaction with professional US non-commissioned officers (NCOs). Partners also seek the long-term reliability, affordability, and dependability that FMS provides through integration into the US Department of Defense sustainment infrastructure, which provides partners the same access and capabilities to sustainment as US forces. Collectively, these long-term advantages drive partners to seek capabilities via FMS as part of a total package approach.
When aggressive actions by competitors drive partners to seek US collaboration and capabilities via FMS, there are finite windows of opportunity to complete FMS cases following each aggressive event. DoD and services must move quickly during these windows to capitalize on opportunity. More importantly, DoD and services must continue FMS case development in the background during lulls in competitive activities in order to posture FMS cases for execution when the next aggressive act occurs. Service efforts to improve exportability of weapons systems and modernize FMS for the information age will accelerate FMS case development. Through continuous interaction and preparation, US services can posture and partners can quickly implement FMS cases for the capabilities they need to restrain aggression.
FMS Trend 3: Growth in Partner IAMD Requirements. Growth in partner requirements for Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD) capabilities presents one of the biggest opportunities this decade for partner investments in defense-related capabilities. Partners are investing in IAMD capabilities to defend against rapidly-advancing air and missile threats, including systems widely proliferated by Iran and its proxies.
Rapid proliferation of precision navigation, satellite imagery, and 3-D printing have led to speedy advancements in threat capabilities posed by mid-sized Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS). Iranian proxies showcased these threats on 14 September 2019, when over 19 air vehicles attacked Aramco’s Abqaiq oil processing facility and temporarily destroyed 5% of the world’s oil production capacity. Defense against these and other advanced air and missile threats demands that partners adopt a comprehensive approach that includes procuring and layering new active defense systems including counter-UAS systems, developing passive defensive measures to complicate enemy targeting and increase resilience, improve C2 based on a common operating picture, and develop attack capabilities to degrade the aggressor’s ability to launch attacks.
While IAMD represents a growing opportunity, pandemic-driven and oil-affected budget realities will drive partners to maximize improvements of existing IAMD capabilities while minimizing cost. Partners will focus IAMD investments in connectivity to leverage existing data, develop a common operating picture, and improve C2 with existing sensors and interceptors. By focusing on connectivity, data, and C2, partners will maximize their current capabilities while building an architecture that can integrate and scale when future IAMD investments are feasible.
Partners now face a world with COVID-19 as a fixture. In this new environment, allies and partners will continue to look to the US for leadership and to US FMS programs to meet and sustain their security requirements. During a period of constrained partner budgets, US FMS programs offer allies and partners low-cost options to improve the effectiveness of their existing weapons systems by leveraging existing partner data and improving C2 offer the most cost-effective approach to advance partner capabilities. Meanwhile, US and partners will use FMS as a tool to address and deter aggressive acts competitors, and help partners build new integrated air and missile defenses to defend against rapid threat advancements. By posturing FMS cases for opportunity, US industry and the Defense Department can advance US interests while providing allies and partners the capabilities they need for their defense in a world affected by COVID-19.
