FMS: Trends for 2020
Foreign Military Sales (FMS) is one of many security cooperation tools used with partners to develop their capabilities. FMS for Air Forces in 2020–2022 is characterized by growth, driven by modernization of 4th generation fighter fleets, and challenged by industry and partner capabilities to sustain 4th generation platforms.
Growth of Growth. Following 2019’s significant (over +50%) growth in USAF-managed FMS, USAF-managed FMS will continue to grow over the next two years, likely at an accelerated pace. While the 5th-generation F-35 will be an important part of this growth, the primary driver of USAF-managed FMS growth will be 4th generation platforms like the F-16 Block 70 and modern variants of the F-15E platform.
Modernization and on-boarding. Drivers of this growth are partner choices to modernize their legacy 4th generation fleets, or new partner on-boarding to transition from Soviet/Russian weapons systems and training. Partners currently operating 1980s-90s F-16 and F-15 fleets face important choices between upgrading these legacy fleets with new radars and electronic warfare gear, and buying new aircraft. Because of the significant costs required to extend service life (including structural modifications), re-wire aircraft, and risks associated with upgrading old systems, many partners find it more cost-effective to buy new 4th generation fighters rather than upgrade existing hardware. Furthermore, many countries currently operating Russian/Soviet fighters are looking to transition off Russian systems, doctrine, and training, and transition their entire enterprise to more capable and interoperable platforms like the F-16 Block 70 and F-15 variants.
Sustainment challenges. Air Forces and industry continue to be challenged to sustain fielded weapons systems against diminishing manufacturing sources (DMS) and obsolescence, even in the most modern weapons systems that are currently in production. While partners may be able to procure and field capable systems, what matters most is partner ability to operate and sustain these capabilities during times of crisis.
This is the first of three articles on FMS shared at MITRE’s 2020 International On-Site on 3 December, follow-on articles include FMS trends and FMS priorities.
